Why Iceland has been shaking lately, and how it threatens Russia and the rest of the world

2024 Author: Richard Flannagan | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-15 23:55

The picturesque Reykjanes Peninsula in southwestern Iceland has been relatively quiet for the past 800 years. But a little over a year ago, a local volcano awakened. The beginning did not bode well, but suddenly a dramatic denouement came. This culminated in more than 17,000 earthquakes in the past week alone. Such a seismic environment in Iceland could signal the beginning of a new period of increased geological activity, which could last 100 years. Why is this happening and why are environmentalists around the world so worried?

Scientists have closely watched how part of the earth changes shape. They recorded a seismic whisper of magma moving towards the surface. Everyone, without exception, was worried about only one question: will there be an eruption?

Volcano awakening

Just a few days ago, the answer was a categorical yes. The most likely scenario involved spectacularly dramatic lava fountains and rivers of molten rock. However, all this, fortunately, did not endanger any settlement. This eruption will also not threaten planes flying in the skies above it, as happened during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in another part of the country in 2010. During its eruption, literally everything was covered in ash.

But what is happening now in Reykjanes is amazing and unpredictable. No one can say if there will be an eruption in the coming days or even weeks. "People began to actively question what is really going on here?" says Dave McGarvey, a volcanologist at Lancaster University in England.

Past cycles of volcanic activity in the region indicate that this tectonic turbulence could mark the beginning of a series of eruptions. They can last for a century. If this does happen, the Reykjanes Peninsula could be destroyed by thousands of volcanic fires.

For those outside Iceland, this uncertainty may seem disturbing. For Icelanders themselves, such geological hyperactivity is completely normal. “You live in a country where volcanoes are very active, people get used to dealing with them,” says Icelandic seismologist Torbjörg Agustsdottir.

Molten lava underfoot

The Reykjanes Peninsula is located near the capital city of Reykjavik. It is volcanic like everything else on the island. What happens there is always under the close supervision of scientists. On March 3, seismometers recorded alarming acoustic signals. They were associated with the movement of magma through the earth's crust close to the Fagradalsfjall peninsula. The result was a series of cracks in the ground. The soil was also deformed here, which indicates the migration of molten rock.

Volcanologists immediately suspected an eruption. “This seems to be exactly the kind of turmoil that we always see in the run-up to an eruption,” said Christine Jonsdottir of the Icelandic Meteorological Office. The movement of magma underground suggested that the eruption could occur within hours.

On volcanoes elsewhere in the country, such signals would herald the appearance of lava, experts say. But that did not happen. All this testifies to the complete unpredictability of this phenomenon. Now tremors, indicating the movement of magma, have subsided. They may appear again, but they may not return. “We just have to wait and see,” says Bergrun Arna Sladottir, a volcanologist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office. "Prepare for the worst and hope for the best." “When there is such a movement of magma as it is now, it is always possible that it will get stuck somewhere, cool down, solidify and just remain underground,” says another specialist, Agusdottir.

The problem is that all volcanoes are unique. Several of them may have the same eruption precursors, but this does not mean at all that everything will always be the same. The last major eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula took place eight centuries ago - shortly after the first people settled in Iceland. At that time, the science of volcanology essentially did not exist, and without records of specific seismic data from this region, no one knows for sure what volcanoes in this corner of Iceland will do just before an eruption. But closer scrutiny is absolutely essential in order to know what the future might bring.

Iceland is shaking

After a series of large-scale eruptions between the 10th and 13th centuries, the Reykjanes Peninsula was quite calm. The situation changed at the end of 2019, when more frequent and strong earthquakes began on the peninsula. In February of this year, powerful seismic shocks shook the region well. And there were so many of them that experts are very worried. Scientists say this is the most intense sequence of earthquakes in the area in the past hundred years.

The key to this tectonic bedlam is the fact that Iceland is located in the northern part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. There is a split in the seabed. Here, lava erupts and cools, forming new oceanic crust on either side of the rift. The North American and Eurasian tectonic plates are located to the west and east of it. It's like the fingers of one hand.

Most of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is underwater, but the Reykjanes Peninsula is located in the northern part. Therefore, he is in constant motion. For unknown reasons, about every 800 years, the movement suddenly intensifies, causing a violent surge of tectonic earthquakes, as is happening now. Ancient lava flows studied by geologists and historical texts from early Icelandic settlements indicate that when a major earthquake surge occurs here, eruptions follow. Scientists cannot yet explain why this is exactly what happens, but these two phenomena are interconnected.

It is possible that as the peninsula moves, it creates new pathways for magma to emerge to the surface, but experts are not yet sure of this. However, it is known that all three previous eruptions took place in this sequence.

The beginning of something new and impressive

A seismic storm on the peninsula can actually lead to an eruption. If so, it would be very different from some of the more explosive and large-scale events that shook other parts of the island nation.

For example, the infamous 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano created a persistent, tall column of hot ash. This resulted in the largest closure of European airspace since World War II. But the molten rock beneath the Reykjanes Peninsula is a slightly different mixture. It is similar in composition to what is now emerging from the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii. This magma struggles to create enough pressure as it rises to the surface to create large explosions. The lack of ice cover here also deprives magma of its dangerous fuel - water. In small quantities, it is highly vaporized by molten rock. This causes quite powerful explosions with the formation of ash.

So far, there are no signs that the eruption in Reykjanes will be of such magnitude as to cause any damage to Icelandic cities. The most likely scenario, volcanologists believe, is that lava will erupt from a crack or series of cracks in the area. The eruption can last for several weeks or so. This will certainly create spectacular lava fountains erupting from the ground. Such flows should not affect settlements, but they may well go off the road or overturn a couple of power lines. Magma can rise into an aquifer or even a tourist attraction in the Blue Lagoon, causing explosive activity there.

There are also some concerns that Grindavik, a city on the southern coast of the peninsula that was previously shaken by a barrage of earthquakes, could be threatened. Experts hope that it will all end only with the fact that people will simply enjoy this stunning sight from afar. It will be possible to watch the lava flow with the northern lights behind it.

Of course, this could be the start of something much larger. Past research on the peninsula has shown that when a new cycle of eruptions begins, it includes not one eruption, but a great many. According to experts, seismic signals and data on soil deformation over the past year show that magma was collected in more than one place. It accumulated at three different points under the peninsula's two volcanic systems. It's too early to panic, but this week's activity could mark the start of another hundred years of periodic volcanic fires in Iceland's southwestern peninsula. It's time for people to start realizing the fact that this is long-term and the consequences are unpredictable.

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