"Contagion": How the filmmakers predicted a pandemic and where they were wrong

2024 Author: Richard Flannagan | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-15 23:55

During the self-isolation announced by the Russian president in the spring of 2020, the 2011 film Contagion with Jude Law became extremely popular. It is considered by some to be an accurate prediction of the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, there are many coinciding and non-coinciding moments in the film, and the creators of the tape, it seems, did not foresee something from life at all and therefore did not show it.

How the film predicted reality

The COVID-19 coronavirus really came from Asia and people got it from bats. True, in the film, pigs first got the virus from them, and through the pigs, the virus got to people. In fact, the path of infection turned out to be much shorter … Why eat a pig infected with a bat, if you can eat a mouse right away?

People really had to remember how many things we touch in a day - together with other people. Thus, not only viruses spread, but immunity protects us from most of the bacteria that we get by touching terminal screens, handrails in public transport and door handles.

Comparisons with the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu is one of the deadliest epidemics of recent centuries. Only the total pestilence during plague pandemics can be compared with it. So it is easy to guess that when faced with a new superinfection, people will remember exactly the "Spanish flu".

Rumors of biological weapons. In the film, both the whistleblower blogger and government organizations argue that the virus could have emerged from military laboratories. In the midst of COVID-19, this version is indeed repeated on the Internet, but whether the government is considering it as seriously as in the movies will remain a mystery for obvious reasons.

Dealers in miracle drugs. In "Infection", a drug of the type that is popularly called fuflomycin - "Farsity" is promoted through a popular and greedy blogger. In fact, it turns out to be useless, but good money is made from it. A similar situation began to take shape in France in March-April 2020, where a certain doctor Rau promotes and sells a drug with no proven effectiveness - hydrochloroquine.

Individual bioterrorism. In the film, representatives of the special services argue that there may be cases of deliberate infection of large masses of people, similar to how some people blow themselves up in crowded places. Alas, spring 2020 brought a lot of similar news in Asia and Europe.

Marauding. In the film, very quickly after the start of the pandemic, people began to break into houses, rob each other of food and rob shops. In life, events do not develop so quickly. At first, people hope to survive the quarantine, then - that the government will help to do this. But in the south of Italy, by the beginning of April, riots and looting began. A large number of illegal workers - a sign of almost any developed country - found themselves without a financial cushion, the opportunity to receive social assistance and sometimes simply homeless.

What was in the film, but not in the spring of 2020

The super virus in life is not that great. In the film, it develops in a matter of days. The incubation period is about a day, the symptoms increase quickly and death also occurs quickly. In addition, the mortality rate of COVID-19 is much lower than that of the supervirus from Infection, where one in four dies.

People with natural insensitivity to the virus have not been seen. In the film, the main character is not able to get infected because he has a natural immunity to the virus. COVID-19 is sometimes ill in a very mild form (many children), but innate immunity to it has not been found.

It was not possible to raise the alarm as quickly in life. Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang was the first to speak about the new virus, he also indicated the place of spread of the infection - the seafood market. However, the medical authorities considered him an alarmist and literally ordered him to shut up. Li Wenliang became one of the victims of the virus, he died in early February 2020 - more than a month after he tried to report the beginning of the epidemic.

Human immunity is excellent at recognizing the virus. In the movies, people die because their body does not recognize the virus as an infection, and it destroys the body without any obstacles. In life, the immune system tries to get in the way of the virus, and most deaths occur precisely because of the enhanced immune response to infection. For many, the immune system successfully deals with COVID-19 without destroying itself.

Scientists in the film do not take into account many factors. To understand how the virus works, real scientists studied the ratio of different sexes and ages among those infected and killed by the virus, as well as considered other factors, such as climatic, the prevalence of BCG vaccination, and the like. This is an important piece of research to combat any infection. In the film, such studies were not even briefly mentioned.

Streets are not overgrown with garbage and are unlikely to overgrow in developed countries. It is very important in a pandemic to observe the hygiene of the city, and this is common knowledge. The authorities not only make sure that no rubbish remains on the streets, but they often disinfect the asphalt to stop the spread of the virus.

What is missing in life and not in the film "Contagion"

The creators of the quarantine did not imagine a virus-dissident. A very serious problem is people who deny the need for any quarantine measures for the virus or the danger of the virus in general. For example, in South Korea, the virus was spread by members of the sect, within which it was encouraged to gather together en masse during the epidemic. In Russia, one of the main carriers of the epidemic was an infectious disease doctor who returned from Spain at the height of the epidemic in Europe and decided not to comply with quarantine, because "walks are more useful." She met and interacted with a lot of people as she worked as a professor at the university. When she was admitted to the hospital with the coronavirus, it turned out that in a week she managed to get in touch with more than a thousand people.

Outbursts of aggression. In the film, the main character calmly walks without a mask among masked people, and no one pays attention to him. In life, such people are already subjected to at least verbal attacks. In addition, due to the fact that the virus spread from Asia, in life Asians in different countries listen to insults and there are already known cases of physical attacks. For example, on March 14, 2020, in a store in Texas, a young boy stabbed an Asian American family, including a two-year-old girl. In India, on the contrary, Europeans were attacked, since there the epidemic is associated with Italy.

Systemic problems. The film barely touched on issues such as the lack of protection among doctors and medical workers, which led to their high death rates, and massive layoffs from hospitals. A glimpse of the problem with the departure of people stuck in foreign countries, while in the lives of hundreds and thousands of people found themselves in a terrible situation, unable to either fly out or stay. Half a word is said about the economic problems that quarantine leads to. The main character does not even think about the financial issue.

Mutual help and mutual support. In life, a huge number of psychologists offered their help in the fight against anxious thoughts for free, universities began to post free lectures, and many previously paid courses became free. People come up with games that challenge the intellect and allow them to get away from problems, for example, to shoot cosplay of painting masterpieces at home. Volunteers buy food for the elderly. In Contagion, everyone turned out to be for themselves. Life has shown that people are better than they thought of themselves.

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